Publications

• Publications
• Reports

All publication titles are links to their sources.

• Santos, M. J., J. H. Thorne, and C. Moritz. 2015. Synchronicity in elevation range shifts among small mammals and vegetation over the last century is stronger for omnivores. Ecography 38:556-568.
• Rowe, K. C., K. M. C. Rowe, M. W. Tingley, M. S. Koo, J. L. Patton, C. J. Conroy, J. D. Perrine, S. R. Beissinger, and C. Moritz. 2014. Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 282:20141857.
• Tingley, M.W., and S. R. Beissinger. 2013. Cryptic loss of montane avian richness and high community turnover over 100 years. Ecology 94:598–609
• Morelli, T. L., Â A. B. Smith, C. R. Kastely, I. Mastroserio, C. Moritz, and S. R. Beissinger. 2012. Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge. Royal Society Publishing 279:4279-4286.
• Eastman, L. M., T. L. Morelli, K. C. Rowe, C. J. Conroy, and C. Moritz. 2012. Size increase in high elevation ground squirrels over the last century. Global Change Biology 18(5):1499-1508.
• Tingley, M. W., M. S. Koo, C. Moritz, A. C. Rush, and S. R. Beissinger. 2012. The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges. Global Change Biology 18:3279-3290.
• Rubidge, E. M., J. Patton, M. Lim, A. C. Burton, J. S. Brashares, and C. Moritz. 2012. Climate-induced range contraction drives genetic erosion in an alpine mammal. Nature Clim. Change 2:285-288.
• Yang, D., C. J. Conroy, and C. Moritz. 2011. Contrasting responses of Peromyscus mice of Yosemite National Park to recent climate change. Global Change Biology 17:2559-2566.
• Leache, A. L., D. A. Helmer, and C. Moritz. 2010. Phenotypic evolution in high-elevation populations of western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis) in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 100:630-641.
• Rubidge, E. M., W. B. Monahan, J. L. Parra, S. E. Cameron, and J. S. Brashares. 2010. The role of climate, habitat, and species co-occurrence as drivers of change in small mammal distributions over the past century. Global Change Biology 17(2):696-708.
• Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R. Beissinger, and C. Moritz. 2009. Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 106:19637-19643.
• Tingley, M. W., and S. R. Beissinger. 2009. Detecting range shifts from historical species occurrences: new perspectives on old data. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24(11):625-633.
• Moritz, C., J. Patton, C. Conroy, J. Parra, G. White, and S. Beissinger. 2008. Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park. USA Science 322:258-261.
• Parra, J. L., and W. B. Monahan. 2008. Influence of climate data uncertainty in modeling geographic responses of California mammals to 20th century climate change. Global Change Biology 14:2215-2231.

Reports

• NSF Final Report 2012 (pdf)
• Western Deserts 2012 (pdf)
• CEC/PIER Final Report, March 2011. "Testing methods for species predictions." (pdf)
• Yosemite 2007 (pdf)
• Lassen 2007 (pdf)
• Yosemite 2006 (pdf)
• Lassen 2006
• Yosemite 2005
• Yosemite 2004
• Yosemite 2003

Research of the Grinnell Resurvey Project

NSF Grant

As of February 2007, MVZ was awarded a National Science Foundation grant to pursue the Grinnell Resurvey Project. The full Award Abstract is posted here.

The Final Report was submitted in July 2012, and can be downloaded here.

There is intense societal and scientific interest in effects of global warming on species' distributions and diversity. However, because there are so few historical records with the detail necessary to measure multi-decadal responses to past warming, most attention has been on using models to predict future responses. The present study resurveys bird and mammal diversity across 80 high-elevation sites in California for which there is an extensive, museum-based record from the early 20th C. The aims are to (i) measure how changes in climate over the past 100 years have affected species diversity, (ii) test alternative methods for predicting effects of climate change on species' distributions, and (iii) using historically-verified models, predict responses to future climate change.

Climate Models

One of the primary research questions is, how have species changed from the original survey period to the present? One aspect of that question is whether or not climate change has played a role. To answer that, we needed to seek out and develop climate models for the historic period as well as the current. Researchers attempted to develop their own through a method of interpolation called Anusplin using weather station data. These Anusplin climate surfaces were compared it to another method, PRISM, which we contrast below.

For each of these methods we have reconstructed surfaces for two time periods for the Western US:

1. Historic : 1900 - 1940
2. Current : 1980-2005

Reconstructions made through Anusplin are available at 2 spatial resolutions:

1. ~1km squared
2. ~4km squared

Reconstructions from PRISM are only available at ~4km squared.

Direct comparisons of these two historic reconstructions of climate surfaces are described in detail in:

Parra, J.L. and W.B. Monahan. 2008. Influence of climate data uncertainty in modeling geographic responses of California mammals to 20th century climate change. Global Change Biology. Abstract